Kelsey Group Local Media Forecast #ILM09
Liveblogging Matt Booth’s & Neal Polachek’s forecast for SMB/Local media spending. Enjoy:
Total U.S. Local Ad Spend should grow from $136B in 2010 to $144B in 2013. Scary looking drop from $155B in 2008 to $141B in 2009. A result of the economy and shift to digital.
Local Ad Spend by Medium: All mediums losing share except for digital/online
2013 Interactive Ad Market $58.57B -Search= about $26B of that
2009:
– Mobiie, email, reputation management, video, display about where they thought they would be
– Estimating search at $13.9B to $15,5B
- Total searh query volume exceeding targets
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CPC down 3.3 to 1.0% from 2008
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CTR down 12.4% to 3% from 2008 but GOOG rebounding
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Ad coverage up 2.7%
Local search:
- Off $350MM-$100MM from previous forecast
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CPC down -4.8% from 2008; pull back of SMBs of 30% in mid-year
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CTR down 10.6% from 2008; result of advertiser pull back
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Ad coverage down 2.6% from 2008
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Revenue showing robust growth; range 9.6% to 17.8% from 2008
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Expectations is that end of Q3 is when turnaround will be in full swing
Classifieds & Verticals
- Down $1B from 2008
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Classifieds performance terrible -30% Q2 Y/Y; Overall down -21% from 2008
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Non-Auto/RE vertical markets were strong
SMB Ad Spending
- Spending is down 23.5% from August 2008 to Q2 2009, but this appears to be turning around
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Direct mail seems to be coming back
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6% of SMBs tried PPC this year down from 9% last year, but PPC appears to be coming back
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8% bought print ads in 2009 v. 13% in 2008
Newer businesses much more oriented to Online Media but newer businesses spend less
- Businesses 0-3 yrs old spend 30% of ad budget online v. businesses 11+ years old spending 13% online
49% of SMBs buy ads themselves (down from 57% last year)
24% buy ads via Print Yellow Pages/IYP sales forces (up from 16% last year)
9% buy via Radio/TV Sales up from 3% last year
8% buy via an agency up from 3% last year
New content models based on analytics such as Associated Content, DemandMedia & Examiner.com are going to be a big trend going forward.
SMBs that intend to use a page on a social site in the next 12 months:
– 44% of new SMBs say yes
- 18-22% of older SMBs say yes
Online Media Usage Reaches Parity with Traditional Media. Kelsey expects Online to eclipse Traditional over the coming year.
ROI pereception
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Direct mail
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PPC
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IYP
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Print YP
16% of businesses that are <3 yrs old have self-enrolled in Twitter
not even going to try and interpret the chart that’s up there now 🙂
Neal pushing Presence (you need to be where people are looking), Performance (you need to be able to convert & vehicles that help you convert are important) & Permanance
THE BIG TAKEAWAYS
- Massive shift to digital; “The Cliff” is here
- Search is already rebounding; expecting growth to continue CAGR ~15% through 2013
- Geo-targeted display, video, mobile, email & reputation management all meeting expectations
- Traditional sales forces more competitive with each other. Digital divide is closing
- Overall 2010 will be strong for interactive SMB marketing
Neal thinks the broadcast industry will be much more tied to the mobile experience in the future.